Market Update: Key Insights Before Trading Begins

quinnvaras
Feb 25
2 min read

Global markets remain volatile as tariff concerns, Bitcoin’s decline, and bearish momentum in Indian equities weigh on investor sentiment. Meanwhile, Alcoa warns that Trump’s proposed aluminum tariffs could cost 100,000 U.S. jobs, adding further uncertainty.

1. Alcoa Warns Trump’s Aluminum Tariffs Could Cost 100,000 Jobs

Aluminum giant Alcoa (AA) has raised concerns over the economic impact of the Trump administration’s proposed aluminum tariffs.

Bill Oplinger, CEO of Alcoa, stated at the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference that these tariffs could result in the loss of 100,000 U.S. jobs.
The company believes that higher aluminum costs will hurt American industries that rely on imports, making the tariffs more detrimental than beneficial.

The warning underscores the potential economic risks of protectionist policies, which could impact manufacturing and broader industrial sectors.

2. Indian Stock Market Outlook: Nifty 50 & Sensex Expected to Open Weak

After Monday’s sharp decline, Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open on a muted note today, tracking global market weakness.

Gift Nifty signals a flat opening, trading at 22,595, a 17-point discount from the previous Nifty futures close.
On Monday, the Sensex fell 856.65 points (-1.14%) to close at 74,454.41, while the Nifty 50 declined 242.55 points (-1.06%) to 22,553.35.

Sensex Outlook

Technical indicators show a bearish setup, with Monday’s session forming a correction continuation pattern on intraday charts.
Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, states that as long as Sensex trades below 74,900, weak sentiment may continue, with downside targets at 74,000 – 73,800.

3. Nifty 50: Bearish Signals Persist

Open interest (OI) data indicates a strong resistance zone between 22,700 – 23,000, with call writers maintaining control.
Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dropped to 0.67, reinforcing the bearish undertone.
Key support levels: 22,400 – 22,350, with resistance at 22,750 – 22,925.

Om Mehra, Technical Analyst at SAMCO Securities, warns that the downtrend is intensifying, and any pullback is an opportunity to sell on the rise.

4. Bank Nifty: Weakness Persists, Key Support at 47,844

Bank Nifty fell 0.67% (-329.25 points) to 48,651.95 on Monday, forming a Dragonfly Doji pattern, signaling indecision.
Daily RSI remains below 40, indicating continued weakness.
Support is at 47,844, while resistance is at 49,150 – 49,600.

Mehra notes that a break above 49,600 is essential to shift sentiment positively, but until then, the outlook remains cautious.

Conclusion

The markets are navigating a highly uncertain environment, driven by tariff risks, a slowing global economy, and technical weaknesses in key indices. Traders should remain cautious, as sentiment remains fragile across U.S., Indian, and cryptocurrency markets.